China Index Academy predicts: House prices will stop falling and stabilize in 2025, with the core cities rising by 3-5%.
Recently, the China Index Academy released a forecast report on the future trend of China's real estate market, which attracted widespread attention. The report pointed out that as policy regulation gradually becomes effective, the real estate market is expected to stop falling and stabilize in 2025, and the increase in housing prices in core cities is expected to reach 3-5%. The following is a detailed analysis and structured data display.
1. 2025 housing price trend forecast
Based on multi-dimensional analysis of the macro economy, policy environment and market supply and demand relationships, the China Index Academy believes that housing prices will end their previous downward trend in 2025 and gradually stabilize. Among them, the housing price increase in core cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, etc.) will be higher than that of other cities due to population inflows and industrial agglomeration.
| City Type | House price forecast for 2025 |
|---|---|
| Core city | 3-5% |
| Second-tier cities | 1-3% |
| Third- and fourth-tier cities | 0-1% |
2. Impact of policy environment on housing prices
In recent years, governments at all levels have introduced a series of real estate regulation policies, including purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, and sales restrictions. China Index Academy believes that these policies will gradually become effective in the next two years, helping the market return to rationality. At the same time, the central bank may inject liquidity into the market through interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts to further stabilize housing prices.
| Policy Type | Impact on housing prices |
|---|---|
| Purchase restriction policy | Suppress speculative demand and stabilize the market |
| Rate cuts | Reduce housing purchase costs and stimulate demand |
| Affordable housing | Divide the urgent needs and stabilize housing prices |
3. Popular topics and recent hot topics
Combining the popular topics on the entire network for the past 10 days, discussions related to the real estate market are mainly focused on the following aspects:
1.The policy of "recognizing houses but not loans" is implemented: Many cities have relaxed restrictions on housing purchase loans and lowered the threshold for housing purchases, and the market has responded positively.
2.Debt issues for real estate companies: The progress of debt restructuring of some leading real estate companies has attracted attention, and the market still has concerns about the risks in the real estate industry.
3.School district housing cooling: The policy of balanced education has been promoted, and the prices of school district housing in some cities have loosened.
4.The rental market is active: Young people's willingness to buy a house has declined, demand for renting a house has increased, and the long-term rental apartment market has ushered in development opportunities.
4. Future market outlook
China Index Academy pointed out that the real estate market will show the following characteristics in the future:
1.Intensified differentiation: The housing price gap between core cities and third- and fourth-tier cities will further widen.
2.Quality is king: Home buyers pay more attention to housing quality and supporting services, and developers need to improve product competitiveness.
3.Policy Leadership: The market trend will highly depend on the direction of policy regulation, and we need to pay close attention to policy changes.
Overall, the forecast that housing prices will stop falling and stabilize in 2025 has injected a shot in the market, but home buyers and investors still need to make rational decisions based on their own needs.
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